Monday, August 6, 2012

Trading Earnings with options - PCLN

Priceline (PCLN) reports earnings on August 7th.
The Street expects:
  • Revenue: $1.35 billion
  • EPS: $7.36
  • Q3 revenue guide: $1.82 billion
In Q1 Priceline reported solid results with robust international revenue growth of 58%, excluding FX impact. Hotel room nights sold was up 47% y/y and Bookings.com increased its number of properties by 55% over the quarter to 210K.
Management guided 26-31% y/y increase in gross travel booking, in which international gross travel booking is projected to achieve 32-37% y/y increase and domestic gross booking to increase 5-10% y/y. Revenue is projected to increase 18-23% y/y and non-GAAP EPS of $7.2-7.4 per share.


In first 10 min on PCLN we can buy

700/700 stradlle for 20/21 dollar  this we can probably exit at 22/23
695/700 strangle for 17/18 dollar this around 20 dollar.


On 2/28/2012 earnings

630 stradlle -(price is already up 40 dollars so IV is out of it)
we can buy it for 17.50


For PCLN - tomorrow 8/7/12 I will try to do a bearish butterfly.   640/620/600 for around 2 dollars..Not sure if we need to take the call side of the trade. Market is looking extended an as per cobra we might get some pull back. Also redman from ibank has a good article about PCLN. PCLN genrally move 40/50 dollars on earnings announcement.

Also planning to trade FAS butterfly. Market is extended and might take a 88/84/80 put calls. hoping for some sell of rest of the week.

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