Trading AAPL through straddle and strangle

Seems like 7/18/12 was a narrow day  its wednesday..there are 2 more days to expiry
we have to see what we can get in first 15 mins
OK price is at 607  and 605 straddle are for 9.10
and 610 are for 9.0
price is at 607.50 and strangle 605/610  is for 6.50

lets see at end of day -  next day price is still at 610 and all of them lost almost 2 dollars each.

within same day 605 got the most is around 8.50
next day best price is around 9.0

610 straddle can get max value is 9.70

so on a day where price does not move at all this will happen.  on this day it hardly move for 5 dollars.

Trading Earnings with options - PCLN

Priceline (PCLN) reports earnings on August 7th.
The Street expects:

• Revenue: $1.35 billion
• EPS: $7.36
• Q3 revenue guide: $1.82 billion

In Q1 Priceline reported solid results with robust international revenue growth of 58%, excluding FX impact. Hotel room nights sold was up 47% y/y and Bookings.com increased its number of properties by 55% over the quarter to 210K.
Management guided 26-31% y/y increase in gross travel booking, in which international gross travel booking is projected to achieve 32-37% y/y increase and domestic gross booking to increase 5-10% y/y. Revenue is projected to increase 18-23% y/y and non-GAAP EPS of $7.2-7.4 per share.


In first 10 min on PCLN we can buy

700/700 stradlle for 20/21 dollar  this we can probably exit at 22/23
695/700 strangle for 17/18 dollar this around 20 dollar.


On 2/28/2012 earnings

630 stradlle -(price is already up 40 dollars so IV is out of it)
we can buy it for 17.50


For PCLN - tomorrow 8/7/12 I will try to do a bearish butterfly.   640/620/600 for around 2 dollars..Not sure if we need to take the call side of the trade. Market is looking extended an as per cobra we might get some pull back. Also redman from ibank has a good article about PCLN. PCLN genrally move 40/50 dollars on earnings announcement.

Also planning to trade FAS butterfly. Market is extended and might take a 88/84/80 put calls. hoping for some sell of rest of the week.

Trading Earnings with options - CLR

CLR - Continental Resources Inc (CLR) has been an independent oil and gas exploration company since 1967, though the company only went public in May of 2007. It has reserves totaling 134.6 MMBoe, 77% of which are filled with oil (the rest with natural gas). 82% are located in the Rocky Mountains. Continental's reserves are concentrated in regions that have seen little attention from larger, publicly-traded companies because of the high cost of developing them.


Trade research - Earning 8/9/2012 at 9am  earning conf call.

Earning date Feb 23 -2012  - No Direction bias and we will like to see how it could be traded through options.
On 23 price opened between 91.50 and 92.50.  Once the price is at 92.50 best to take March strangle 90/95. This shows a spread of 4.60/5.40 but a middle price will work.

March 90 put - 2.70
March 95 call - 2.25
Total - 5.0 $

We had earning at 10.0 am we can have an easy exit around 6.0 $(5.90 - 6.30)

At 8.41 CLR price hit 90.0   we can buy straddle 6.90 /7.40
March 90 put -3.90
March 90 Call- 3.40

at 10 am it will hit 9/9.60 spread.



For 11/3/2011 earning day

CLR - 60 to 61
straddle 60 is between - 5.55 and 5.95.  Not sure if 5.75 will get hit for say 5 options.

same day exit 6.65 /7.00  -- so easily we can get a 10/20 percent hit. profit stop at 6.75 will get it.

Not researching 8/4/11 as it was volatile august period.


Last earning analysis of 2/8/11  - this was low range day. earning at 9am. at 8.30 amprice was around 62.50. so a strangle attempt.

60 put/65 call at 1 to 1.25  spread. easy purchase at 1.15. 
 we can exit probably at 80/90 cent. there was not much move at all. so this trade is a loss.

Next post will research PCLN -